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Friday, January 20, 2017

The impact of Super Regional for NCAA from 2019

https://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/media-center/news/super-regional-format-added-di-tennis

Why is basketball an exception to the 'general rule'.

Is the only significant change the site of rd of 16s(site of the higher seeded teams).

If so, last season's NCAA bracket(bolded the finalists);

Cal(1) vs Texas Tech
Texas vs Pepperdine(8)
UGA(5) vs Ok. St.(12); OSU upset 4-0
GT vs OSU(4)
UNC(3) vs UVA(14); UVA upset 4-2
Auburn(11) vs Vandy(6)
Miami(7) vs Michigan(10); Michigan upset 4-3
Stanford(15) vs Florida(2); Stanford upset 4-3

So will it result in less possibility of upsets; for example it's hard to imagine Stanford beating Florida at Gainesville.

Which also means, that Dual season might be even more important. Now top players will have to play more to avoid the team getting upset and thus being seeded low for the NCAA(for example, Stanford; Zhao played mere 9 Dual matches last season. Zhao-less Stanford lost to Ole Miss, Vandy, ASU, and Pepperdine. And you wonder why Stanford was seeded 15th.  Gibbs-less Stanford lost to SMC).

How about NTI(which should be critical for ranking purposes), will Stanford continue to boycott it(UF and USC are playing again this season).

Stanford could afford to let go star players earlier(Burdette, Gibbs, Zhao), or let them sit out some matches, since they just recruit so well, and they peak in May anyway.

[recent players that were let go; all were at least finalists for the slams, Falconi, Lesniak, Will, Burdette, Gibbs, Brady, Loeb, Zhao. Only Stanford managed to win NCAA after letting Burdette turn pro, in 2013. Florida might've achieved NCAA 3-peat had Will played for her final year. UNC could've won last season had Loeb stayed]

Now, if they're seeded low again, they'll have to play an away match in the rd of 16(not at a neutral site). Can they afford that. Will this change help 'eliminate' Stanford's curious chronic 'underranked' problem.

Other NCAA brackets from 2013;

2013
UF(1) vs Duke
Alabama(9) vs Cal(8)
USC(5) vs Stanford(12); Stanford upset 4-3
Clemson(13) vs UGA(4)
TAMU(3) vs UVA(14)
NU(11) vs Miami(6)
UCLA(7) vs Michigan(10)
Nebraska vs UNC(2)

2014
UGA(1) vs USC(16)
Vandy(9) vs UF(8)
UCLA(5) vs Miami(12)
Clemson(13) vs Duke(4)
UVA(3) vs BU(14)
Stanford(11) vs Cal(6); Stanford upset 4-3
UNC(7) vs TAMU(10
ND vs Alabama(2)

2015
USC(1) vs Texas Tech(16)
BU(8) vs UVA(9)
UF(5) vs Ok St(12)
Vandy(4) vs Clemson
Cal(3) vs Stanford(14); Stanford upset 4-3
UGA(6) vs Michigan(11)
UCLA(7) vs TAMU(10)
UNC(2) vs Miami(15)

Looks like it might 'impact' Stanford the most, but who knows, they might even 'overcome' it as well!

On a more serious note;

Traditionally SEC and ACC teams have been ranked high(due to various reasons, one of it being intra-Conference competition), so they might benefit more.

In a similar vein, I wonder if it will pressure them to change Pac 12 championship from individual to team competition, following the men. Personally I'm against it, because as I've said before, frankly it's more fun(without that format Ahn and Gibbs would not have played each other even once in their college career lol. And frankly, isn't it boring USC and UCLA men meeting again and again. Oh those glorious days when Klahn and Johnson met each other in the final..), and since Pac 12 teams, especially Stanford and UCLA, dominate NCAA regardless of seeds.

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